Bitcoin has the best-timestamped birth chart in existence. We tested it against 15 years of price, and nothing beat chance.

Why this chart and no other

Almost every astrological claim rests on a birth time somebody wrote down from memory. Bitcoin's does not. The genesis block carries a timestamp inside the block header itself, and the whole network agrees on it. That makes it the one chart where the input is not in dispute — which is exactly what you want if the point is to test the method rather than decorate a conclusion.

What we fixed before looking

Astrology's oldest trick is showing six dramatic coincidences and never mentioning how many chances there were. The only defence is to write the hypothesis list down first and then publish whatever comes out of it. That list lives in the repository as a constant, _data/prereg.py, and it was fixed before the price series was joined to a single transit. Nothing was added, dropped or re-tuned afterwards.

• Transiting bodies (7): Sun, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto.
• Natal targets (9): Sun, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto — every location-independent planet. Natal Moon is a flagged secondary set.
• Aspects: hard = conjunction, square, opposition (0°/90°/180°); soft = sextile, trine (60°/120°).
• Orb: 1°. An event is the day the aspect actually perfects inside that orb, so a retrograde triple-pass counts as three events, not one long one.
• Outcome: the absolute log return over the following 7 days. A “big move” is greater than 10.0% in either direction — up or down; this study takes no view on which.
• Grouping: hypotheses are one transiting body × one aspect class, pooled over natal targets. Testing each of the ~250 individual planet pairs would leave most of them with one or two occurrences in 15 years, which can prove nothing in either direction.
• Price: Bitstamp public OHLC API, BTC/USD daily close, 2011-08-18 to 2026-08-24 (5,486 daily closes, $10.90 → $77,907). Not simulated, not back-filled, not adjusted.

The sample starts in August 2011 because that is the first daily BTC/USD candle the exchange actually publishes. Earlier 2009–2010 prints exist only as thin, irregular quotes on venues that no longer exist, and we would rather have a shorter honest series than a longer invented one.

Reference first · interpretation second

The base rate comes first

Every number further down is meaningless without this one. Across the whole sample, 1,416 of 5,479 days — 25.8% — were followed by a move of more than 10.0% within 7 days.

That is the answer to “the price moved right after the transit!” Bitcoin moves more than 10% in a week about a quarter of the time, on no provocation at all. Pick any date in the last fifteen years at random and you have a one-in-four chance of looking prophetic. A transit has to clear that bar, not the bar of “something happened.”

The ordinary-day reference

Bitcoin already moves enough to make coincidence look persuasive.

25.8% above the registered move thresholdall remaining days

1,416 / 5,479ordinary days that cleared the outcome

>10.0% · 7 daysthe outcome fixed before the join

2,047registered transit events tested against it

The gold segment is not a forecast. It is the historical hurdle every transit row has to clear. A dramatic date beside a transit is unremarkable until its full set of dates beats this ordinary-day reference.

Return to the annotated price history, cycle peaks and drawdown dates ↑

The gold band along the base is not a design flourish — it is every exact outer-planet transit to a natal Bitcoin planet, and there are 170 of them. “Rare” slow transits are not rare once you count all of them instead of the one nearest a headline.

All 17 results, in the order they were registered

Not sorted by strength. Not filtered. The nulls are the finding, and they are printed at the same size as everything else. n is how many times the transit actually occurred — the denominator. hits is how many of those were followed by a big move. Compare hit rate against the 25.8% base rate in the last column but one.

The closest thing to a signal in the whole set is transiting Mars in hard aspect — 94 of 307 occurrences, 30.6% against a 25.8% base, p = 0.059. That is the kind of result that becomes a viral thread if you report it on its own and never mention the other sixteen. Reported alongside them, it is exactly what sixteen coin flips look like when one of them lands slightly to one side.

Denominator audit · all rows retained

The denominators above are smaller than they look

Every test on this page is a binomial test, and a binomial test assumes its trials are independent. For transits they are not, and the reason is mechanical: an outer planet crosses the same natal point up to three times — direct, then retrograde, then direct again — over a matter of months. That is one approach of one planet to one point. Counted as three, it inflates the denominator while the sky did a single thing.

So we re-counted. Passes belonging to a single approach collapse into one trial, using a window set per body: above its retrograde loop, so one approach merges, and below its synodic return, so a genuine recurrence survives. The Sun never retrogrades, so none of its crossings are ever merged — its rows come through at 1.0×, which is the check that the rule is not simply deleting data. Across the rows that collapse at all, the real number of independent trials is 1.1× to 4.0× smaller than the column above suggests: 2,047 events are 1,717 independent trials.

The row this matters most for is transiting Mars in hard aspect, because it is the closest thing to a signal in the set and because Mars retrogrades. Its registered result is p = 0.0587, and that remains the published figure for this study. Re-counted, its 307 occurrences are 251 independent trials and it reads 0.0436. Neither number is close to the bar. With 17 hypotheses the corrected threshold is 0.0029, so 0.0436 is still more than fifteen times away from it — and testing 17 things at p < 0.05 is expected to throw up 0.85 rows near that mark by chance alone. We have one. Nothing here survives correction, on either count.

Evidence ledger · no selected highlights

Every slow transit, one row each

The outer planets are where the dramatic claims live, because their transits are rare enough to line up with something memorable. Here are all 170 of them — every exact Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto aspect to a natal Bitcoin planet in the sample, with the price on the day and what actually happened over the next 7 days. Nothing is omitted, including the boring ones.